Gambling with our future in Bali.

Countries,
including Australia, are reluctant to commit to global reductions by 2020 in
the range of 25-40%. However, even this
target would not be enough to ensure a livable climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change has found that this range of reductions would give us only a fifty/fifty

chance of preventing global warming of over two degrees. While two degrees might not sound like much,
it is likely to cause catastrophic changes in the natural systems that support
human life. At two degrees we can
expect hundreds of millions of people to be exposed to water stress,
substantial reductions in food and sea level rise. We can also expect a substantial increase in the frequency and
severity of extreme weather events.
However, the most dangerous risk of reaching two degrees is that it may
trigger "run away climate change. This
is where natural systems begin to release massive volumes of greenhouse gases,
which in turn, warm the climate farther and farther - the consequences of which
won't be pretty. A two degree rise in
global temperature risks falling off the cliff into climate disaster.

A fifty/fifty chance of avoiding two degrees warming does not sound like a very good
insurance policy. I certainly wouldn't
get on a plane with a fifty percent chance of crashing.
However world leaders cannot even agree to commit to giving us a fifty/fifty
chance of saving the planet.

This fact
illustrates the fallacy of the Rudd government's argument that they cannot
commit to the global reduction range of 25-40% until the results of the Garnaut
report emerge. For the Garnaut report
to have any credibility it would have to be based on the best science, that of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
At the very least surely the targets recommended must give us a 50/50
chance of avoiding climate disaster?

However, we
cannot be sure that a two degree rise is where the cliff edge will be – it may
be well before. Recent research by
James Hanson, a world renown scientist from NASA, suggests that 1.5-1.7 degrees
warming is likely to cause the melting of both the West Antarctic and Greenland
ice sheets. If these enormous blocks of
ice melt, global sea level is expected to rise by twelve metres.

Seventy
percent of the world's population live on coastal plains. Sixteen of the world's nineteen most
populated cities are on the coast. A
twelve metre rise in sea level would change the map of the world. Many island nations would simply be wiped
entirely off the map. We have met many
Pacific islanders here in Bali who can expect to see their homes, livelihoods
and cultures washed away. I met a
Torres Straight Islander today who worries for her children. In the future they may have to anchor a boat
over what were their island's scared sites and burial grounds to visit them.

As young
people we would like to see the world take out a strong insurance policy for
our future. We want world leaders to
act with prudence and wisdom and embrace the precautionary principle. We want to see ambitious greenhouse gas
reduction targets designed to give us a better chance of avoiding climate
disaster than simply flipping a coin.
We need targets that are based on science not politics.

We must
draw a line in the sand at where we need to go to safeguard the future of the
planet. It may not be easy, but it is
absolutely necessary. There will be
some costs associated with avoiding climate disaster. However the costs of inaction will far out weigh the costs of
action.

To do this
we need leadership. Leadership with
vision and courage. Leadership that
will look beyond national and immediate horizons - leadership for
humanity. This leadership is what is
lacking from the Bali conference and a role Australia is well placed to
fill. We have a history of punching well
above our weight internationally, we have excellent diplomats, we have
prosperity, and now we have a fresh government swept to power in what is being
called here in Bali as the 'Climate Change Election'. I challenge the Prime Minister, his government and Australia to
take the lead and begin the brave project of setting the world on a sustainable
path.

The
immediate step in taking up this challenge is committing, while in Bali, to a
global emissions reduction target range of at least 25-40% by 2020. This commitment would demonstrate to the
world that Australia is taking leadership and would place substantial pressure
on other countries to follow suit. To
fail to do so will further delay real action on climate change and move us ever
closer to a climate changed world.

Amanda is
the National Coordinator of the Australian Youth Climate Coalition. www.youthclimatecoalition.org